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Unlike the speculative gambling games that have been popularized in the modern United States, state-run lotteries are based on a principle called “financial modeling,” which assumes that lottery revenue will grow over time. It’s a model that the American Lottery has been following for decades, and one that critics have long dismissed as misleading.
Lottery opponents argued that it was unethical for governments to use gambling to fund public services, and that the money states stood to gain would not be enough to justify the risks. They came from both parties and from all walks of life, but the most vociferous were devout Protestants who viewed government-sponsored gambling as morally unconscionable (indeed, Cohen reports, bingo games held at Catholic high schools often brought in more than the states’ lotteries.)
In response, legalization advocates shifted their tactics. Instead of arguing that the lottery would float the entire budget, they began to emphasize a single line item, invariably a service that was both popular and nonpartisan, such as education, elder care or public parks. This strategy worked, and the lottery’s popularity grew steadily. But it also obscured the fact that the revenue was not as great as it seemed.